Inflation Impacts Food Systems Resilience in Southern Africa

Feb 25, 2025

Southern Africa’s food systems are under increasing strain as inflation continues to rise, threatening food security and undermining the resilience of agricultural value chains. The region, which is already vulnerable to climate change, facing supply chain disruptions and socio-economic instability, now faces yet another challenge - the escalating cost of food production and distribution. As input prices soar and household purchasing power diminishes, the ability of communities to access safe, nutritious and affordable food is severely compromised.

Inflation’s Ripple Effect on Food Systems

Inflation in Southern Africa has had a profound impact on food production, trade, and consumption. The costs of essential agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers, seeds, and fuel, have skyrocketed, pushing many smallholder farmers to the brink. In Zambia, for example, fertilizer prices increased by over 70% between 2021 and 2023, making it difficult for smallholders to afford essential inputs. Meanwhile, in Zimbabwe, annual inflation reached 175.8% in mid-2023, causing staple food prices to surge beyond the reach of many households.

Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by global economic fluctuations, have made it increasingly difficult for food to move efficiently from producers to consumers. In Malawi, food inflation in 2024 was 40.2% on average, and rose to 36% in January 2025. This is due to a number of factors, including drought, poor harvests, and high food prices. In response, food prices have surged, placing immense pressure on low-income households, where a significant proportion of their earnings is spent on basic foods.

South Africa has witnessed a steady food inflation rate of 4.1% year-on-year as of September 2024, despite a general easing of headline inflation to 3.8%. The consistent rise in food prices, particularly in fruits and vegetables, has strained household budgets and exacerbated food insecurity among vulnerable communities. The maize market has also experienced significant fluctuations, with white maize prices increasing by 41% year-on-year, further impacting the affordability of staple foods.

Mozambique has also been hit hard by inflation, with food prices rising significantly in 2024 and January 2025 due to currency depreciation and supply chain challenges. Basic commodities such as maize and rice have seen price surges of over 30%, intensifying food insecurity for millions of people.

Beyond the economic strain, inflation weakens the resilience of food systems by discouraging investment in sustainable farming practices and reducing government and private sector capacity to support agricultural initiatives. This instability threatens long-term food security and economic stability in a region already grappling with erratic weather patterns, pests, and soil degradation.

Role of FSRP in Strengthening Food Systems Resilience

Recognizing the urgent need for action, the Food Systems Resilience Programme for Southern Africa (FSRP) is at the forefront of efforts to build a more resilient agricultural sector. Supported by the World Bank, FSRP is designed to strengthen food security through innovative, climate-smart agricultural practices, enhanced research and knowledge-sharing, and improved regional collaboration.

Photo Credit: CCARDESA. World Bank Implementation Support Mission (ISM) to APPSA-Lesotho.

Under the coordination of CCARDESA, FSRP is leveraging regional expertise to support smallholder farmers and other key actors in the food system. Some of the critical interventions include:

Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA) – Through research and training, FSRP is encouraging generation, dissemination and adoption of CSA technologies and practices that optimize yields while reducing vulnerability to climate and economic shocks.
Enhancing Market Access and Trade – Inflation-driven price hikes highlight the need for efficient and competitive regional food markets. FSRP is working to strengthen agricultural value chains, reduce trade barriers, and improve logistics to ensure food reaches consumers at stable and affordable prices.
Strengthening Regional Research and Knowledge Sharing – CCARDESA plays a pivotal role in facilitating the exchange of agricultural knowledge and best practices across Southern Africa. This includes supporting data-driven decision-making to enhance food systems' resilience.
Building Smallholder Farmer Capacity – Inflation disproportionately affects smallholder farmers, who lack the financial buffers of larger agribusinesses. FSRP provides technical assistance, financial literacy training, and access to resources that help farmers withstand economic pressure.
Leveraging Digital Agriculture Innovations – Digital tools are being promoted to enhance access to critical agricultural information, from weather forecasts to market prices. These technologies empower farmers to make informed decisions that increase production, productivity and profitability.

A Call for Continued Action

While FSRP’s interventions are contributing towards the much-needed cushion against the impacts of inflation, the road to food systems resilience remains a long one and requires concerted and sustained efforts from the private sector, development partners, and public sector, among others.

By reinforcing climate-smart agricultural practices, improving trade and market systems, and strengthening knowledge-sharing platforms, CCARDESA, and its partners under FSRP are laying the foundation for more secure and resilient food systems in Southern Africa.

Photo Credit: Adilson de Nascimento. Inflation is making maize increasingly difficult to afford for many consumers. Captured at Quibala Market, Cuanza Sul.

Reference:

Zam Stats

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Trading Economics

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AP News

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World Bank

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Reuters